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Ukraine. Double candidate
Viktor Yanukovych - like a real candidate. One of the two main contenders for the presidential post. Have desired in the boundless Ukraine, where the biggest Head may personally install any "laws". Our presidency - dei

Viktor Yanukovych - like a real candidate. One of the two main contenders for the presidential post. Have desired in the boundless Ukraine, where the biggest Head may personally install any "laws". Our presidency - really tasty bonus. The crown of all. Exactly God. Anyway, Yanukovich - the candidate from a group of influential friends.

Just as in 2004. Traditional for our policy of deja vu? Not quite. Between these two campaigns for the presidency are very significant differences. One of them - purely psychological properties. Then Yanukovych was absolutely, absolutely sure that he wins in a single wicket. But the scandal, devastating, pejoratively lost in the final. Today - preliminary, advance no confidence.

Moreover, Yanukovych himself somewhere subconsciously afraid of losing. And therefore looks much more modest. Accurate. Now he is less aggressive. Secretive. Try to sit in the shade. Try to avoid in their own actions and words too frenzied reservations and promashek. In order not to look ridiculous. Not yet obtained. While he was in the role of catch-up. Not rated. But the ideas, proposals, initiatives. And the gap, to his great regret (though he may not understand this), only grows.

Evidently the three major problems in the Yanukovych team. First: the absence of this confidence even in the most influential associates of Viktor Yanukovych. That in turn provokes a real lack of sound information and organizational strategy. Confusion did not contribute to the thinking process. Especially in crisis situations and tseytnotnyh. Confusion freezes movement and hypnotizes the mind and compels stupidly wait. The absence of more / less coherent strategy, in turn, rests on the presence of dozens of "microcentres influence" within the nearest circle. Each Microcentre pulls the blanket over himself trying to play yourself, trying to come up with their own vision of the "main road" to the forefront.

Uncertainty - this confusion and vacillation. This sharp drop in efficiency. More - more. All this together creates a second problem: the mass splitting in the Party of Regions. Yanukovych's team literally whip on specific lobbying groups. Each of them has been extremely active in their own game unofficially. These groups of permanent conflict among themselves. Sometimes explicitly. Often - in secret. Moreover, some groups openly (whether consciously or not realized - is another question), play in favor of rival Yanukovych. Endless scandals domestic breeds apathy and indifference among the middle and bottom of the party (read - Staff) level. Party (as a single electoral infrastructure body) begins to hurt extremely dangerous "viral" diseases.

And then he drew a third problem - the growing antimobilizatsiya, hidden autsayderstvo. "Why do something if you still lose? Why jump out of his pants, if you already need to look for tunnels / exits to the favorites for future winners? "For greater understanding of the situation will give you an example. With Tymoshenko is working hard every day, aggressively, and very actively, steadily and even obsessed pocketing all the news channels the maximum amount of information. Often - false. Or, if you speak correctly, publicity and advertising. And he does it very professionally and psychologically justified - is already an illusion "переможної go", the total domination of the candidate, a belief that only he knows all the answers to all questions. Additional problem: maximum electrify your own electorate, to mobilize supporters, to imprison them for a possible "hard scenario, screwed them. Ahead of fact - "the last and decisive.

I will not dwell on the content aspect of information messages of Tymoshenko. In today's Ukraine is still not make any sense. Our buying a shell wrapper, not the content, stuffing. But I will say straight out that it (Yulina) tactics are absolutely justified. Cavalry pressure. Brute. Emotional fountains. But Yanukovych, as I said, tries hard to sit in the trenches, thinking that the common man (he is - voters) in a position independently to separate the wheat from the chaff. Extremely short-sighted strategy. First, the ordinary voter in Ukraine is very dependent on external stimuli, and easily bought on the sweet and beautiful words. Alas, he is not as mature and independent, to knowingly approach to their own choice.

Second, the aggression and pressure quickly infect the activists formed their steadfast belief in the inevitability of a victorious finale. Then, as silence and trench first perplexed, and then all the more strengthens activists opposing camp in seditious thought that their leader is weak, confused and ready to be content with the second number. Even after the election. Especially because, as I said, active against Yanukovich are many insider groups in its environment. "Viktor, you'd better keep quiet, and Julia herself to fall on their own promises!" Another example? For example, project-proposal regionals a sharp increase in social payments was prepared by a notorious ex-esdepeushnikom Michael Papiyev. This strange (and apparently irrelevant today) project formed the basis of many months of PR-campaign of the Party of Regions, which for the sake of that document persistent and aggressive in blocking the Verkhovna Rada.

But the same document provoked strong opposition in the ranks of the ... large and medium industrialists from within the Party of Regions. And this is even understandable. After the proposal Papiyev heavily hit, especially on their strategic turnaround plan. On the face of powerful internal problem. Deadlock problem. On the one hand, part of the OS is already actively spins the social issues and makes it the core of his anti-government criticism. That in itself stupid, as Tymoshenko much more afraid of an entirely different question, but does not fight for "social standards". On the other hand, regional promgeneraly opposed this initiative, and quietly riot, sabotage, looking for other options.

So what is proposed Papiyev? Right. Another painful point of the internal stresses in the PR. Another antimobilizatsionny, splitting the project. And in whose team is really working Papiyev? Simple question - simple answer. And there are many lines of tension. And will be even greater. It remains to add that Yulia Vladimirovna (as always) has chosen a correct strategy against its main opponent - a bright, aggressive public attack is effectively complemented by internal squabbles, the bases and squabbling from numerous insiders. Anyway, while Yanukovych loses. Pace. According initiatives. As mandatory public aggression. By self-confidence and the final result. On mobilization effect.

Why, in this case he decided to play again on a major? It is unlikely that he wants to repeat history five years ago, exactly when he predicted victory, but in the end, he came second. And we will not discuss now, then the legitimacy of the third round. Legally or illegally - now it just does not matter. It is important that Yanukovych then lost. And this despite the fact that he has in the campaign had a powerful (by Ukrainian standards) mobilization tool - the administrative resource. Yanukovych in 2004 - candidates nominated by the authority. And what now? And now everything is much worse. Viktor must attack from the opposition trenches. But he did not and do not want to. Categorically not. The opposition requires artistry, emotional pressure, custom fabrication, continuous creativity, fun. I need the ability to be omnipresent.

Oddly, it was a long-term, Prime Minister Tymoshenko attacks today the upcoming presidential office, using the most of this opposition platform. Good girl! All positive in the country - this is only its merit. All the negative - this is the machinations of mythical powers (President Yushchenko, the banker Stelmach, governors), which interfere with work. Hence the paradoxical slogan: "I am - in irreconcilable opposition!". Ideal tactics (on the strategy mentioned above) of Tymoshenko. The opposition generally involves masterly possession of populism. Populism in turn - is the ability to confidently, clearly, sincerely lie. Tymoshenko - just fabulous knight in the lists opposition: it is perfectly able to tell how and what to do, and what it will do.

Against the background of Yanukovych, who is not able to lie so contagious, the skill of Yulia Vladimirovna looks particularly impressive. And such an enemy tactics deals another serious blow to prospects for Yanukovych. The question is whether Viktor out of someone else's logic process? Will take the initiative in their hands and to propose alternative tactics? Answer: no. Until the last day of the election campaign, he remains driven and will play exclusively on someone else's rules, respond to others' anger and try to keep your own circle of final collapse and betrayal.

But more recently - after the collapse of the loud anti-constitutional coup attempt instigated by the hawks of the BYuT and the PR - it seemed that Yanukovych will be able to offer its own game. Rigid, aggressive, attacking. Especially because he was available for this good launch pad. For the lion's share of potential voters Yanukovych seemed no longer just a man-contender, but a symbol of a mandatory rematch. Fair, in their version of revenge. Yanukovych, it seemed to them - a kind of brand "award for his long suffering caused by political opponents." But the promotion of such a promising brand suddenly stopped.

But Yanukovych's personal reputation was mad clean through the power and the powerful kompromatnye attack. He probably survived the attack and what's next? Nothing. He pass attack and went into the shadows. At some point, even Yanukovych has proved that he is ready to play by the rules. Ready to keep these rules inviolable. Ready to go to the unfavorable trade-offs (in the case, when Yushchenko insisted on the need for early parliamentary elections). Again - all this powerful launching pads in order to become a guarantor of the new domestic political relations. First: there are basic rules. Second: the rules can not buy or change in favor of situational alliances. Third: sometimes you need to make major concessions to keep the overall balance. Fourth: if necessary to subdue their own pride and do not eat "eye for an eye".

However, all this today is not important. Yanukovych is rapidly losing the aggression and pressure by Tymoshenko. The rules again are not important. It is only important picture. And as soon as the real dust-election, Viktor Yanukovych immediately drew their traditional birth defects. Situational weakness. In times of crisis it is banal and lost some time out of the game if his hard attack. It is, roughly speaking, can not immediately respond to foreign stimuli.

He needs a pause to think. And in the big game where the stakes are the presidency, it is too much luxury. It also emerged that he could easily fall under foreign influence, and in general likes to come to grief other people's games. And yet - his laziness and his own fatigue. For all that, Yanukovych - certainly not worse than all the other candidates (now no longer work horror stories, 2004). But better for it? Debatable. Certainly one can say just about what he has just not. And what prevents him from playing the first violin. He has no inclination toward authoritarianism, so tenderly pestuemogo Yulia Vladimirovna. Contrary Yanukovych, Yushchenko, like, ready to hand over all the grunt work of his entourage. And do not go into details.

Excellent quality for a stable political regimes. In our case, immediately comes to the vexing question of the quality of the environment itself, the true intentions of favorites, the readiness of the environment is totally corrupt chain of command. There is something else, which Yanukovych can not offer and that enjoys huge demand. Much to my regret, today because of the deep anarhizatsii administration and the growing radicalization of the public, there is a strong demand for so-called concept of a strong hand. A strong hand - is always a road with one direction.

Way to follow the long struggle for the restoration of basic human rights. Nevertheless, "To put things in order!" "Rein in thieves bureaucrats!" - Now a very popular slogans. And nobody cares what the leaders say it is thieves nomenclature of clans. And that these leaders have become presidents. The main thing - to utter this lie with a special passion and pressure. Yanukovych did not sell himself as a strong hand. And, therefore, and here he moves into the role.

What is in the body? Mandatory autsadeyrstvo twice a candidate. However, the main task Tymoshenko today - the final turn of Yanukovych in the vague charge of the opponent, in the dead of the second number, in an ever justify failure. And also - to provoke apathy and indifference in the ranks of his supporters and leave him alone before the "X hours". However, the main task Yanukovych today - still try to seize the initiative and start pressingovat Tymoshenko throughout the information field. About what I am, incidentally, very much doubt it. Too seething and boiling of the internal conflict environment looks Yanukovych. Someone very carefully and skillfully working to provoke internal instability in the OS. And rightly so. The weak have nothing to claim a leading role ...
Category: Ukraine | Views: 751 | Added by: magictr | Tags: candidate, Ukraine | Rating: 0.0/0
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