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16:51 Can hryvnia to stay afloat | |
 End of the quarter, the activity of banks and even news about the sale of the Odessa port plant contributed to the strengthening of the hryvnia and the interbank spot market. But the reasons for that rate dropped to 8 grn. / $, Is not, experts believe. Moreover ... Currency was short-lived happiness. The growth of the hryvnia against the dollar lasted only ten days. This week, on Wednesday the U.S. money could still be bought for 8,20 UAH. But on Thursday exchangers changed their name - the American currency has risen in price by 20 cents. Before a mark can devalue the hryvnia, and how the course will influence the coming presidential election, wrote "NOW". End of the quarter, the activity of banks and even news about the sale of the Odessa port plant strengthened the hryvnia and the interbank spot market. But the reasons for that rate dropped to 8 grn. / $, Is not, experts believe. Moreover - which began Oct. 1 increase may continue until the end of the year. If it again intervenes National Bank. Hryvnia consolidated taxes and AEs In the last week of September, the regulator did not come out with intervention in the market - he did not have the necessary resources. But this did not really need. For the growth of the national currency had very favorable circumstances. The end of the quarter - the traditional time when banks and companies are actively buying hryvnia. Banks rent quarterly reports and on some articles need to show a certain degree of money supply in national currency. Therefore, several major financial institutions entered the market with the proposal of the dollar. Ukrainian money needed and large companies to pay taxes in the budget. And since the proposal for some time exceeded the demand, the currency has fallen in price. "On a temporary drop in the dollar have affected even the news about the sale of the Odessa port plant", - said an analyst at the International Center for Advanced Studies Alexander Zholud. Expected replenishment of at least 4 billion UAH. But to sell the company failed, because in October of this factor will no longer affect the course. Disappear, and many other favorable circumstances for the hryvnia. Earlier this month, banks and companies do not want to take statements, but must pay interest on loans. Hence, the dollar will not sell, and buy, and increase its value regularly. Election factor If the economic situation had improved slightly compared with the beginning of the year, the political instability added. And she will press on course to themselves the presidential election. The statements of some politicians can trigger the growth of panic among the population and the demand for the dollar at the end of the year may increase suggests the deputy chairman of Bank Finance and Credit "Igor Lvov. "Politicians say that tomorrow will be worse, and people started hoarding dollars. In the past year we have seen - the dollar bought up to 10 hryvnia, then did not know what to do with it ", - he said. According to forecasts the financier, in November and December for the dollar increase in the population can affect the course. In this situation the fate of the hryvnia will be in the hands of the National Bank. Head of information-analytical center "Forex Club" Nikolay Ivchenkoschitaet that in order to keep the ratio hryvnia / dollar at the current level, the regulator must be renewed currency intervention. "NBU will be able to hold rate steady until the end of the year. There is a $ 3.3 billion of international reserves, which the National Bank may spend at auctions for natural and legal persons ", - said the expert. And if the fourth tranche of the IMF will come in time, the sharp devaluation of the hryvnia has nothing to fear - it safely survive the period of political instability. Dollar at 7, but not soon Most experts agree that before the end of the course remain within 8, 40-8, 50 UAH. / $. Course 9 hryvnia now overvalued, course 8 hryvnia - that is not the course in terms of economy. The real exchange rate - 8, 40-8, 50. It reflects both economic and political realities ", - explains Lviv its forecast. But after the elections, the situation might change. The draft budget for 2010 laid the ratio hryvnia to the dollar as 7,5 UAH. / $. Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is confident that everything will be much better. "After the presidential election will be changed leadership of the National Bank, and the hryvnia exchange rate will revert to the level of 6.5 against the U.S. dollar", - promised to the leader of the government during visit to Odessa. Former deputy head of the NBU Alexander Savchenko hryvnia sees the future in a more rosy light. He predicts a return rate to 5 UAH. / $ After the presidential elections. The weakening of the dollar in the second quarter of 2010, he predicted the first broadcast channel TVi. Exchange market experts agree with the politicians. But only in the fact that such projections are needed to prevent agitation among the population. Otherwise, they are very far from reality. "By 5 hryvnia to the dollar exchange rate will not return. God grant that a few years we returned to the level of 7 hryvnia for one dollar. This may take a year or two ", - considers Ivchenko. Positive predictions on the stabilization of world markets, on which depends very much on Ukraine. According to the forecasts of Lviv, course success turn to the Ukrainian national currency earlier. By March 2010 the first year, when the weakened political tension can be expected to strengthen the hryvnia. | |
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