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Home » 2009 September 7 » Ukraine - Russia: and if in fact - the war?
11:31 Ukraine - Russia: and if in fact - the war? | |
 Hypothetical war between Ukraine and Russia, fighting in the Crimea - a bad dream from which I want to dismiss. But a few years ago, armed conflict between Tbilisi and Moscow, too, looked fantastic and utter nonsense.Michael DUBINYANSKY, Natalia Meleshchuk (newspaper in Kiev, № 160,"The New York Times": "Ongoing outbreak of hostility in the Crimea could lead to hostilities. At the end of last week, the flagship of the American press "The New York Times" made a scandalous article on Ukraine-Russia affairs. The publication wrote: "There are fears that the outbreak of open hostilities in the Crimea, in spite of its unlikely, could lead to armed confrontation, or even the fighting type of Russo-Georgian war. Logic overseas observer is easy to understand: at first glance in the autonomous republic there are all prerequisites for the remake of the South Ossetian events. Here and Crimean separatists who dream of Mother Russia, and Sebastopol disassembly around the Black Sea Fleet, and threatening statements by President Medvedev ...Straight Yankees raised the topic taboo, very unpopular with us. Hypothetical war between Ukraine and Russia, fighting in the Crimea - a bad dream from which I want to dismiss. But a few years ago, armed conflict between Tbilisi and Moscow, too, looked fantastic and utter nonsense.Ambitious politicians hawks believe that the war for them, though in fact it is they serve the war. War has its own logic, and the powers that dictate its own terms, turning them into obedient puppets.Summer of 1914 no one in Berlin, Paris and St. Petersburg did not want World War II. But European leaders have become hostages of the circumstances of fatal miscalculations and their own fears. Both provoked an escalation, total distrust and fear of "losing face" plunged Europe into a senseless slaughter.For example, today nobody is going to start a war in the Crimea. But Ukraine-Russia confrontation could lead to unintended military conflict. Sufficiently small spark - and step by step, the parties may agree to violent opposition, unwittingly.Military conflict between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely. But if irreparable still happens, we get terrible explosion of South Ossetia. In August 2008 the first Saakashvili, Medvedev and Putin revived the old war of the early nineties, with a known set of participants, with pre-military and political.If it came to armed conflict in the Crimea, a peninsula entirely new conflict breaks out, fraught with unpredictable chain reactions. For example, it is difficult to predict, as the show itself Crimean Turkish factor. If someone expects that you can play voynushku while keeping the situation under control in the ARC, waiting for him bitter disappointment ...When the First World War was already in full swing, a politician from Germany asked the other: "Look, how can this still happen?" I received the reply: "Oh, if only we knew!" I want to believe that in the foreseeable future Moscow and Kiev politicians not have to maintain such a dialogue.Factors PROS AND CONSTheoretically, the number can always go to the quality and the cold war - to grow into normal. It is only important to assess the risk.Therefore you should not take an ostrich attitude, ignoring the undesirable scenario. It is better to weigh all the arguments and sober assessment of how likely an armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine."For"- A year ago, Russia has demonstrated that it is ready to use military force against unwanted neighbors. Until August 2008 it seemed that the arms of Moscow - information and economic pressure, but no tanks with the bombers. Now, this psychological barrier has successfully overcome. Armed "peace enforcement" had to taste the Kremlin leaders.- In the Kremlin, contributing to tensions in the ARC is beneficial and some Ukrainian politicians. The opposition's aggressive defense of Moscow and the Crimea - good political trump card. They will consolidate the patriotic electorate, or even cancel the presidential elections - supposedly not up to them now.- The world community is unable to prevent the hypothetical Russia's aggression. Last week, NATO spokesman James Appathurai stated unequivocally that the Alliance does not intend to provide military aid to Ukraine and assist her in ensuring territorial integrity.Of course, in Brussels and Washington are always ready to verbal condemnation of Moscow, but the war with nuclear Russia for Ukraine nobody will. The Kremlin is well aware."Against"- Crimea - is not as fertile ground for military conflict, as South Ossetia or Abkhazia. While residents of the ARC dislike the central government, the obstinate attitude of the peninsula and the official Kiev is incorrect to compare with the Georgian-Ossetian. In the nineties we had a bloody war and ethnic cleansing, after which the Georgians, Ossetians and Abkhazians are unlikely to coexist in one country. Crimean average person is not walking the streets with Kalashnikovs. Unlike South Ossetia, Crimea is not like a powder keg ready to explode at the slightest spark.- Annexing Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Moscow did not lose. Pro-Moscow political elite in Tbilisi was absent, the vast majority of Georgian citizens did not like its northern neighbor and supports the integration into NATO. The Kremlin had no chance to return to Georgia in Russia's bosom, and he took it from a hostile country everything he could - two rebel provinces.Another thing - Ukraine. Pro politicians we have to spare. Not far off presidential election, and Moscow has an excellent chance to achieve his, without recourse to arms. The new Ukrainian leader can be far more accommodating in the Black Sea Fleet, NATO and the TCU. By contrast, violent confrontation on the Crimean peninsula, only lift rating antirossiyskih forces. By taking away the Crimea, Mr. Medvedev will lose forever Kiev. Is it a game worth the candle? Before we make war in the Crimea, the Russians should at least wait until 2010 ...It would seem that this item negates all the arguments in favor. But the antiwar fuse will work only on one condition: if the actions of politicians are absolutely rational. Unfortunately, this is not always the case.- South Ossetian economy adjusted to the military situation and the uncertain political status - smuggling, drug trafficking, arms trafficking ... In Crimea millions of dollars invested in the resort business. Among investors dominates Russia's capital, including circles, close to the Kremlin.The armed conflict on the peninsula will result in irreparable loss of money, converted into the South Coast hotels and water parks.A couple of rocket volleys - and the tourist will not return there for another ten years. Big capital needed silence in the ARC, and it will act as a deterrent.Fresh news exchange "ungraciousness"23 July: The sailors of the Black Sea Fleet the third time this month attempted to carry cruise missiles without permits from one military unit to another. Ukrainian law enforcers in Sevastopol detained a convoy of three trucks with ammunition.July 24: It has become known about Ukraine's intention to expel two diplomats, Russia - Counselor of the Embassy of Russia, Vladimir Lysenko, was in charge of the Black Sea Fleet, and the Consul General of Russia in Odessa Alexander Grachev. The reason for expulsion, according to unofficial data, PE was in Sevastopol, what happened yesterday.July 29: Russia Foreign Ministry stated its intention to send to Ukraine's Consul General in St. Petersburg Natalia Prokopovich and one of the advisers of the Embassy in Moscow. Official Kiev said that in response to the expulsion of "spies" Russia sends "innocent diplomats."August 11: President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev issued a video-blog address to Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yushchenko, accusing him of "anti-Russia policy." Medvedev also said that he had taken the decision to postpone the visit to Ukraine, Russia's new ambassador for an indefinite period.August 17: Ukraine Russia sent another note of protest in connection with pollution area of Sevastopol Bay.August 24: In the investigative committee of the Procuracy of Russia stated that on the side of the Georgian armed forces in August 2008 attended by regular army troops Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.August 25: In Defense of Ukraine, commenting on the accusation of Russia party, said the attempt to discredit the Armed Forces of Ukraine.Aug. 26: Ukrainian bailiffs tried to take away the sailors leading beacon next to the Chersonese beacon. Russia has warned that due to tragic consequences in case something is not responding.Michael DUBINYANSKY, Natalia Meleshchuk (newspaper in Kiev, № 160, 31 August 2009) "The New York Times": "Ongoing outbreak of hostility in the Crimea could lead to hostilities. At the end of last week, the flagship of the American press "The New York Times" made a scandalous article on Ukraine-Russia affairs. The publication wrote: "There are fears that the outbreak of open hostilities in the Crimea, in spite of its unlikely, could lead to armed confrontation, or even the fighting type of Russo-Georgian war.Logic overseas observer is easy to understand: at first glance in the autonomous republic there are all prerequisites for the remake of the South Ossetian events. Here and Crimean separatists who dream of Mother Russia, and Sebastopol disassembly around the Black Sea Fleet, and threatening statements by President Medvedev ...Straight Yankees raised the topic taboo, very unpopular with us. Hypothetical war between Ukraine and Russia, fighting in the Crimea - a bad dream from which I want to dismiss. But a few years ago, armed conflict between Tbilisi and Moscow, too, looked fantastic and utter nonsense.Ambitious politicians hawks believe that the war for them, though in fact it is they serve the war. War has its own logic, and the powers that dictate its own terms, turning them into obedient puppets.Summer of 1914 no one in Berlin, Paris and St. Petersburg did not want World War II. But European leaders have become hostages of the circumstances of fatal miscalculations and their own fears. Both provoked an escalation, total distrust and fear of "losing face" plunged Europe into a senseless slaughter.For example, today nobody is going to start a war in the Crimea. But Ukraine-Russia confrontation could lead to unintended military conflict. Sufficiently small spark - and step by step, the parties may agree to violent opposition, unwittingly.Military conflict between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely. But if irreparable still happens, we get terrible explosion of South Ossetia. In August 2008 the first Saakashvili, Medvedev and Putin revived the old war of the early nineties, with a known set of participants, with pre-military and political.If it came to armed conflict in the Crimea, a peninsula entirely new conflict breaks out, fraught with unpredictable chain reactions. For example, it is difficult to predict, as the show itself Crimean Turkish factor. If someone expects that you can play voynushku while keeping the situation under control in the ARC, waiting for him bitter disappointment ...When the First World War was already in full swing, a politician from Germany asked the other: "Look, how can this still happen?" I received the reply: "Oh, if only we knew!" I want to believe that in the foreseeable future Moscow and Kiev politicians not have to maintain such a dialogue.Factors PROS AND CONSTheoretically, the number can always go to the quality and the cold war - to grow into normal. It is only important to assess the risk.Therefore you should not take an ostrich attitude, ignoring the undesirable scenario. It is better to weigh all the arguments and sober assessment of how likely an armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine."For"- A year ago, Russia has demonstrated that it is ready to use military force against unwanted neighbors. Until August 2008 it seemed that the arms of Moscow - information and economic pressure, but no tanks with the bombers. Now, this psychological barrier has successfully overcome. Armed "peace enforcement" had to taste the Kremlin leaders.- In the Kremlin, contributing to tensions in the ARC is beneficial and some Ukrainian politicians. The opposition's aggressive defense of Moscow and the Crimea - good political trump card. They will consolidate the patriotic electorate, or even cancel the presidential elections - supposedly not up to them now.- The world community is unable to prevent the hypothetical Russia's aggression. Last week, NATO spokesman James Appathurai stated unequivocally that the Alliance does not intend to provide military aid to Ukraine and assist her in ensuring territorial integrity.Of course, in Brussels and Washington are always ready to verbal condemnation of Moscow, but the war with nuclear Russia for Ukraine nobody will. The Kremlin is well aware."Against"- Crimea - is not as fertile ground for military conflict, as South Ossetia or Abkhazia. While residents of the ARC dislike the central government, the obstinate attitude of the peninsula and the official Kiev is incorrect to compare with the Georgian-Ossetian. In the nineties we had a bloody war and ethnic cleansing, after which the Georgians, Ossetians and Abkhazians are unlikely to coexist in one country. Crimean average person is not walking the streets with Kalashnikovs. Unlike South Ossetia, Crimea is not like a powder keg ready to explode at the slightest spark.- Annexing Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Moscow did not lose. Pro-Moscow political elite in Tbilisi was absent, the vast majority of Georgian citizens did not like its northern neighbor and supports the integration into NATO. The Kremlin had no chance to return to Georgia in Russia's bosom, and he took it from a hostile country everything he could - two rebel provinces.Another thing - Ukraine. Pro politicians we have to spare. Not far off presidential election, and Moscow has an excellent chance to achieve his, without recourse to arms. The new Ukrainian leader can be far more accommodating in the Black Sea Fleet, NATO and the TCU. By contrast, violent confrontation on the Crimean peninsula, only lift rating antirossiyskih forces. By taking away the Crimea, Mr. Medvedev will lose forever Kiev. Is it a game worth the candle? Before we make war in the Crimea, the Russians should at least wait until 2010 ...It would seem that this item negates all the arguments in favor. But the antiwar fuse will work only on one condition: if the actions of politicians are absolutely rational. Unfortunately, this is not always the case.- South Ossetian economy adjusted to the military situation and the uncertain political status - smuggling, drug trafficking, arms trafficking ... In Crimea millions of dollars invested in the resort business. Among investors dominates Russia's capital, including circles, close to the Kremlin.The armed conflict on the peninsula will result in irreparable loss of money, converted into the South Coast hotels and water parks.A couple of rocket volleys - and the tourist will not return there for another ten years. Big capital needed silence in the ARC, and it will act as a deterrent.Fresh news exchange "ungraciousness"23 July: The sailors of the Black Sea Fleet the third time this month attempted to carry cruise missiles without permits from one military unit to another. Ukrainian law enforcers in Sevastopol detained a convoy of three trucks with ammunition.July 24: It has become known about Ukraine's intention to expel two diplomats, Russia - Counselor of the Embassy of Russia, Vladimir Lysenko, was in charge of the Black Sea Fleet, and the Consul General of Russia in Odessa Alexander Grachev. The reason for expulsion, according to unofficial data, PE was in Sevastopol, what happened yesterday.July 29: Russia Foreign Ministry stated its intention to send to Ukraine's Consul General in St. Petersburg Natalia Prokopovich and one of the advisers of the Embassy in Moscow. Official Kiev said that in response to the expulsion of "spies" Russia sends "innocent diplomats."August 11: President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev issued a video-blog address to Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yushchenko, accusing him of "anti-Russia policy." Medvedev also said that he had taken the decision to postpone the visit to Ukraine, Russia's new ambassador for an indefinite period.August 17: Ukraine Russia sent another note of protest in connection with pollution area of Sevastopol Bay.August 24: In the investigative committee of the Procuracy of Russia stated that on the side of the Georgian armed forces in August 2008 attended by regular army troops Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.August 25: In Defense of Ukraine, commenting on the accusation of Russia party, said the attempt to discredit the Armed Forces of Ukraine.Aug. 26: Ukrainian bailiffs tried to take away the sailors leading beacon next to the Chersonese beacon. Russia has warned that due to tragic consequences in case something is not responding. | |
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