All Trought about politic at Ukraine

In Government stars refusal of international financial institutions in lending ...The only remaining hope for Putin and Gaddafi Bank chairman ...

Vladimir Stelmach

The fact that Vladimir Stelmaha term ends next January, can play an important role in determining the winner of the presidential race.

Chairman of the Bank is finally retired. Kermit Bank finds itself not only in other hands: a guide to the Central Bank comes a new team - the team's new president. Rather Yatsenyuk become president than, say, the first deputy Stelmaha, Shapovalov remain inviolable within the new top management of the NBU.

So in the logic of action by Vladimir S. and his inner circle can discern and the suspected motives are anything but any hopes that remain for another term. Understanding the tip of the Bank that their classrooms have to keep under any circumstances, balance may tip the scales in favor of election of any candidate. And hardly princes Bank will act in favor of the applicant, which feels naked idiosyncrasies Yushchenko. In opinion of Victor A. Bank in inertial yet heard, although the closer the elections, the thinner inertia.

Emergency role Stelmaha and Co in the election process is simple - Bank remains is not the only creditor of the government. As experts predicted, the deeper sucks Ukraine electoral populism, the cooler will become Kyiv relations with international creditors.

The first bell has sounded

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has refused to continue lending Railways companies - until the Firm Flotation will not reform its organizational structure.

After the union show, arranged around the review of tariffs for gas for the population and effectively enhanced the smooth solution of District Administrative Court of Kyiv (the same that the softening of the President of Ukraine Decree on the termination of the sixth convocation of VR and snap parliamentary elections), is unlikely to enhance its cooperation with Ukraine IMF.

Devaluation of government promises to raise gas tariffs for the population and enterprises teplokommunenergo force to reconsider its plans for Ukraine another potential creditor - the European Union said Brussels Declaration which promised to lend Naftogaz, if he dares to reorganization. Needless to remind that the tariff policy was one of the main components of reform in the gas sector.

And more of Naftogaz. The fact that the supervisory board of public funds rekapitalizovanoho Ukrgasbank headed Naftogaz chairman Oleg Dubina, hardly will make another creditor Ukraine - World Bank, whose financial support is crucial for banks' recapitalization. This traces the bitter symbolism - international financial institutions at the expense of their

· Help recapitalize the state banks,

· Which then turns into a pocket bank Naftogaz,

· Who, without waiting for tariff increases, unlimited will loan to his bank that he helped recapitalize those

· Who thought to bring domestic gas prices to the level of import indispensable health Naftogaz.

Circle zamknulos absurd. Despondency and despair Kosyan series creditors Ukraine.Remains National Bank. And Russia.

Kremlin loan. Is Libyan?

Information about discussing whether Putin and Tymoshenko's September 1 issue of the Russian loan Ukraine, sooner or later prosochytsya in the media. It seems that if Ukraine cease lending by international financial institutions in the fourth, decisive quarter, the Kremlin loan Ukraine again occupy the first column. Maybe officially about it declared in October in Kharkiv at the regular meeting JUVTO and GDP, and that negotiations on the allocation of credit by Russia and Ukraine will be the element «extensive training», to which Putin said.Much of the credit can be directed back to Russia - Gazprom gas for the winter. Looks like that at the time and budget sharply require external assistance (again, subject to shrinkage flows from IFIs) - the insurance recovery from wages and pensions that are formed in naynezruchnishyy time: the period between the first and second round of the presidential elections.

Search creditors will and other non-European, parallels and meridians - in Libya, China, Gulf states, as soon as Ramadan ends there.

Lender of last resort

Yet the Bank remains the lender is the last hope. Budget will become more difficult because problems with its content in August was already evident. I wonder what fairy tale this time tell the prime, returning from Gaddafi, but the source of UNIAN government showed 30 percent of income under-execution of the state budget in August compared with the plan. So from that, agree or not Bank monetyzuvaty budget deficit, largely depends on the fate of the election.

Seemingly Bank bought government bonds has been 26 billion. from the beginning of the year, but is largely bonds issued for recapitalization - first Savings Bank and Eksimu, then already and the "pedigree" Bank "Kyiv and UkrGasBank.

Contrary to expectations that the Bank agrees monetyzuvaty reliable bonds to 18.6 bln. Issued to replenish the fund authorized oil and gas, regulator stubbornly refuses to do so - in spite of long persuasion prime minister in the NBU.

National Bank of ever accused that he does not give money for construction, agriculture and Euro 2012. If you find the NBU legal quarrel as to circumvent the requirement to send notorious and dead 9.8 billion. bridges, stadiums, roads, it will be mid September naslano porchu as new parliamentary ad-hoc committees.

If «grandfather» Yet another return from his long leave, they help to stand on its Stelmaha can only think about a carefree retirement.

But one condition - the pension should receive bank transfers from Ukraine - away from the wrath of a new president.