All Trought about politic at Ukraine

There are at least ten reasons that IMF may be a claim to the government. That simply ignores Ukraine Action Plan, written in the Memorandum of the Fund. Perhaps this could be the worst outcome if the government proposed a way of economic development. However, today there is nothing except the entries in the memorandum.

OnTuesday, the mission returned to Kyiv International Monetary Fund. Head of Mission Ceyla Pazarbashiohlu brought disappointment to the Ukrainian authorities and sulk.

The point is to ensure that Ukraine's refusal to fund the next tranche, and thereby speed up the offensive in the country a real crisis.

IMF caught lying

The situation is really critical. Previous tranche, the Fund approved in late July, was obtained fraudulently. When is the last time she worked in Ukraine mission, the Government sent to the IMF letter of intent. Signatory and the president. In the letter, including zapevnyalosya that Ukraine for obtaining money meet several key conditions.

After that there were some movements of power, after which came another letter. On the alleged promises made. He signed only Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yushchenko refused to put his signature. However, the letter went, and the Fund approved the disbursement of a tranche. God alone knows why.

It was not written a number of preconditions stipulated in the memorandum and a letter of intent.

First e. The government has not approved the bill on disclosure of information regarding the owners of a substantial stake in banks.

Friend e. No decision regarding UkrpromBanka and Nadra Bank. Although some decisions, even on the Elimination. In general, even the Bank performs its functions efficiently. With 60 banks that have pledged to increase capital after the January testing, promise kept only 18.

Third is, and is very important. Were not increased gas tariffs for the population and teplokommunenergo.

Fourth and condition and too important. New Financial Plan "Naftogaz" of 2009 suggests a deficit of funds at 33.3 billion USD. However, the memorandum as the maximum amount specified in 25 billion. Furthermore, the Government has not developed a forecast of the company in 2010.

E Fri. Except when consumption exceeds 600 kW, not increased electricity tariffs.

Sixth E. Not implemented numerous measures to save money and budget constraints of the budget deficit.

Seventh. With companies taking taxes in advance, but some are deferred (eg, "Ukragroleasing). And bothprohibited by the memorandum with the IMF.

Th e. Any steps been taken towards the implementation of pension reform.

Ninth and too important. BYuT and Party of Regions overcome a veto on law on the financing of Euro 2012.What really makes the National Bank "print" 10 billion USD for the hidden financing of the budget.

Tenth. Government and National Bank strongly increasing "print" money. Yet in early September, and annual limits on the issue of new money has already exceeded.

These only ten reasons that IMF may be a claim to the government and the NBU. If you describe the situation as a whole, it simply ignores Ukraine Action Plan, written in the Memorandum of the Fund.

Perhaps this could be the worst outcome if the government proposed a way of economic development. However, today there is nothing except the entries in the memorandum.

Rate circus

You can give two more examples of deception in which the Fund can catch the Ukraine. First - the case of tariffs, which looks more like a detective.

The government pledged to the IMF to raise tariffs for heat, due to the rise of imported Russian gas. And yet, according to the memorandum, the government pledged to raise gas prices to the public.

It seemed that everything went smoothly. June 10 the Cabinet approved a plan in 2009 to stabilize the financial condition of Naftogaz Ukraine. Specifically, he recommended that the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) from October 1 to raise gas prices for population and teplokommunenergo.

IMF inspired distributed July 10 press release, which noted that the Ukraine authorities have committed themselves to a quarterly rise in gas tariff.

The next day, NERC has signed decree number 811 and number 812. Documents entered a mandatory 20-percent increase in the cost of gas for the population. At 20% gas dorozhchav a quarterly basis until the price rose to 2,5 times. However, when it became known that the IMF will approve the allocation of Ukraine third tranche of the loan at 3.3 billion dollars, the government refused obligations.

NERC announced its decision false. At the same statement was made that the documents adopted under pressure from the president, not the initiative of Prime Minister. However, the trick did not work, because to us some of the IMF "lover" verified copy submitted passed resolutions 811 and 812.

So, ultimately, NERC approved these same documents, but under the numbers 911 and 912. The Government did agree that the price of gas for the population and communal autumn grow by 20%.

July 24 NERC distributed a statement that on September 1 will first increase the price of gas for the populationas of 1 October - for teplokommunenergo. A July 27 the IMF finally made good on the allocation of 3.3 billion dollars.

But the Government and NERC will not give up. "There will be no increase gas prices for the people" - Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko promised in August. At the same time, NERC has found a reason to cancel their own decision.

The committee chairman, Valery Kalchenko said that NERC's decision to raise gas price for population and communal enter into force only upon approval by the Federation of Trade Unions. Naturally, the union said that no reason for higher prices there.

For the sake of decency, Kalchenko not exclude that NERC Trade Unions appeal the decision in court. On September became known new details. During negotiations with the IMF mission the government reported that prices did not come through raise opposition's secretary of state.

EURO-2012 is a picture of the psu

A second striking example - to overcome the presidential veto on the law on the financing of Euro 2012 due to "print money". The exclusion of the law was one of the preconditions of the third tranche of the IMF. However, Timoshenko approached the issue creatively.

President vetoed, the obviously the terms of the IMF. Then, on August 21, BYuT and the Party of Regionsfriendly overcome a veto. Moreover, Tymoshenko personally came to the parliament building to behind closed doors to discuss the "regionalization" list of items to be financed by "published" National Bank money. List not yet published, which is well-founded suspicion "deribanom.

It's only two striking instances of fraud. In fact, the same key things that obitsyalysya since the winter of last year, just not enforced. With very good reason. Premier Tymoshenko can not accept the IMF conditions. Their performance directly zakreslyuye her victory in the presidential election.

In the Fund, of course, all understand it. Probably there and knew about the error in a letter to the prime minister. However, in late July gave the money - probably not to provoke instability in the largest country in Eastern Europe.

At this time, this option will not work. On Tuesday there were two direct evidence that the IMF may suspend or completely terminate the program for Ukraine, and not give any more money.

Foundation threatened to break relations

September 1 morning IMF mission arrived in the Finance Ministry and the government. Obviously, the conversation went very unpleasant. Noon Deputy Finance Minister Valery Aleshin assembled press conference that talked about the bad. Such him was not very long.

Deputy Minister of predicted difficult negotiations on the allocation of the fourth tranche of the IMF loan.Foundation openly declared, that may cease cooperation with Ukraine. The reason may be that the government of Ukraine will go to the excessive accumulation of budget deficits, and thus provoke inflation.

"We once councils have to repeat some explanation concerning the approach the Ministry of Finance and Economy Ministry ... This includes possible parameters that need to be corrected in the state budget-2009. This is settled law and the state budget the total amount of debt" - he said .

Naturally, the Ministry of Finance found that respond to the IMF. According to Alyoshin, the development of the economic situation this year could be sent in several scenarios. And it is this ministry wants to speak with the IMF. Also, it wants to discuss a draft budget for 2010 - not very relevant topic today.

For example, Aleshin pointed to privatization. "The second half will be a major privatization procedures, including in September. This is true competition in Odessa port plant and some other enterprises. So to say that by the end of the year do not plan proceeds from privatization, I would have felt premature, - he said.

However, the deputy minister admitted that so far only collected from the privatization of 6.5% of the annual plan, or 565 million USD.

Debt increased by one third

Indicators of debt really awesome. According to the Presidential Secretariat of Ukraine in January-July 2009 the government expanded borrowing to 8.7 billion, or 35.2%. Half of this sum was involved only in July.

With the rates at the beginning of August the government very close to increasing the debt limit specified in the Memorandum. In the limit of 193 billion USD, the Ministry has already attracted 185. More can not borrow - the limit will be achieved through devaluation, which automatically makes expensive currency of the debt.

You must take into account the actual amount of debt twice as above. Features of accounting to the Ministry of Finance does not include the amount of debt of $ 10.5 billion or almost 90 billion USD at market rate, which is obtained under the stand-by. But it is also lending money, and they will return after three years.

But it's not all. The Government has exceeded statutory maximum level of state guarantees. Their volume exceeded 40 billion USD, while the budget law provided 37 billion.

Guarantees received anything and everything: The State Innovation Finance and Credit Organization (8 billion USD), Guy (2), Ukrkosmos "(2), Ukragroleasing (over a billion dollars), Ukrmedsnab (500 million euros and 400 million dollars ), "K" (8 billion USD) and two airlines - HDAVP and Aviant (2.5).

On most of these projects do not know nothing. And recently, Tymoshenko promised to have and to give state guarantees on loans for development of the coal industry.

National Bank hurt by rate

After the Ministry of Finance IMF mission traveled to the National Bank. At noon, she met with the Bank and the Secretariat of the President.

General negative background and felt at this meeting. Fund representatives have accused the regulator is that it tries to keep the rate that it is impossible to maintain.

In the Secretariat refused to comment on the talks. But the source of "economic truth" in the National Bank issued its version of events. "They said that the attempt to artificially keep the rate expires simple waste reserves. The Fund believes that the exchange rate to release until he is not alone vrivnovazhytsya" - he said.

According to the banker, the regulator has a different perspective. However, Deputy Chairman of one of the systems of banks in the comments "economic truth" said that criticism is valid. "Clearly, the method of" pouring "Market bucks does not work. The last two interventions by nearly 300 million dollars just have to make a group of people. And more to spend National Bank can not" - he said.

Source "economic truth" in the National Bank acknowledged that the regulator is limited in capability. Moreover, once he was already close to the lower border of violations of international reserves, embedded in the memorandum with the IMF. "If not for the last half billion tranche of the Fund, we would have violated the" ceiling "- he said.

What outraged the IMF

Meeting at the National Bank came out very hard. Source outlined in the Bank as Deputy Head of the Secretariat Oleksandr Shlapak umovlyav Ceyla Pazarbashiohlu give Ukraine a postponement for two weeks for work on the bugs. However, in response, he heard only the incomprehension. That this change, if Ukraine is not got a chance again and promised to reform?

He stressed that the relationship was a drastic change of IMF mission and personally Ceyla Pazarbashiohlu Ukraine. "Actually, the Foundation now has two choices. The first - all the same to give money, and thus recognize that the requirements of the memorandum has no special significance. Second - make the repetition February events. That is, to deny us to arrange a mini-shock but in such a way to force the government to do anything to restore the reputation "- said the official.

In this way the time was Turkey, where from Pazarbashiohlu. The country was forced to go through the strong devaluation and a sharp increase in interest rates, and only then started reforms. Ukraine also learned that this refusal by the IMF.

In winter, this year the fund gave the government money, and the budget delivered only National Bank, which is "published" required amount of money. Until now know why at the time acting head NBU Anatoly Shapovalov went concessions said.

According to sources in the National Bank, breaking the program right now would be most undesirable. Attitudes and expectations of devaluation "second wave" of the crisis are so strong that the IMF's refusal to cooperate with Ukraine can work as a trigger.

The Government expects to receive from the IMF is 3.8 billion dollars by year's end. Part of the money likely will go to finance social spending. But if they are not, the fiscal collapse is inevitable. Only the official budget deficit was in the first seven months more than 15.35 billion USD. In fact, the same, the central bank has financed government spending tens of billions.

That is, if the gap program with IMF support National Bank rate would be even theoretically difficult. Its reserves will not grow in regular 3.8 billion.

According to the Bank, now the government has three ways. First - do some IMF demands. Why, unfortunately, has not happened so far. And it is unlikely the Fund will now listen to the author. "Ceyla clear that Tymoshenko was persuaded not be. She understands everything" - said the official.

The second possible way - Tymoshenko has met with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Successful meeting ensures gap program with the IMF, because the money received from Russia will continue to do painful for rating reform."Will only guess at the conditions that Russia will give the money" - stressed the source "economic truth."

Third, and very likely today the way - no alternative to break relations with the IMF. In this case, the only source of money left the National Bank, which will have to simply "print". This guaranteed inflation and Sorrowfully reputed "second wave of crisis.