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Home » 2009 September 17 » Forecast of war with Russia
17:27 Forecast of war with Russia | |
 Let's try to make a forecast of future war with Russia. Forecast is Ukrainian military professionals and therefore very interesting. Weather rallies devoid of emotional rhetoric, objectively measured strength and resources that may be involved in the conflict, particularly command and control. In the forecast indicate -- The front is the operational-strategic formation, which are specially created to guide the troops on the operational and strategic direction. Within the strategic direction can be several fronts. Thus, Ukraine is the South-Western strategic direction within which there are two operational and strategic directions (Kharkiv - Kyiv - Lviv and Kharkov - Dnepropetrovsk - Odessa), which break down into smaller operational areas. In addition, there is a separate seaside operational direction (Crimea). According to Soviet canons on two operational and strategic directions would have to operate two fronts (not less than 3 armies each), and seaside prompt dispatch (Crimea) would have to provide separate coastal army and naval forces. In the reserves need to have more power for 2-3 Army (Corps), as the operational-strategic directions diverge in different directions, which contradicts the basic principle of maximum concentration. Therefore, to ensure new operational areas (in particular, the overlap of the gap between the fronts, which will increase) and compensation for losses and must mention reserves. Leadership for those troops, again according to Soviet canons should implement GSH and Stavka because the idea of creating a middle tier of strategic management - the main points of command troops in the strategic direction - was recognized as counterproductive as in 1941, and 1980-ies. This should be done, and now look at how Russia can do. Without the deployment of military units truncated within the mobilization of Russia is not able to create a single front. Get the troops alert, staffed by contract, Russia will be able to put one army. To build a second set of army combat units and logistics, will weaken the North Caucasus Military District and withdraw recruits from other districts to expand the rear parts of the truncated (as hastily formed military conscripts from different parts of the county for the attack on Chechnya in 1994 and 1999. ). Under such conditions, Russia will be able to conduct active operations on only two operational directions. One of them is a priori would Crimea. But this early deployment even if tactical military success will be a strategic loss for Russia, because from the very beginning it is secondary to the South-Western strategic direction. In political terms, it generally disastrous, since Ukraine can not be captured in parts. It can be taken only once the whole, under military pressure from seeking consent to such political agreement that would allow Russia strategic success (as in the case of Czechoslovakia in 1968). Since Russia has only limited forces at the operational level, it needs to concentrate on their main direction, which would allow accommodating the Ukrainian government. Average Dnieper and Donets Basin such directions is not. Any territorial division of Ukraine using the army only will assist in mobilizing the forces of Ukraine, the intransigence of the government, the tough stance of global political players against Russia. In addition, the fighting and the attendant destruction and casualties reduce support for Russian actions in the regions of Eastern Ukraine, which are considered prorossiyskimi. Therefore, one direction may be considered expedient to Kiev in order to defeat the main forces of the Ukrainian army, a threat to the capital of Ukraine and bring an end to the war on convenient political conditions. Since, as noted above, to act according to the canons of Soviet impossible because of the weakness of Russia's armed forces, it is likely the Russians will improvise on the basis of the available forces. Recently, these improvisations are already consolidated in the official views of the creation of military groups and management. For its part, Russia experts point out that in the case of aggression by Russia against Ukraine, Russia has few chances to win the war: - "I know very well the situation in Ukraine, as long worked in Russia's embassy in Ukraine. Our media issue jingoistic patriotic propaganda, and journalists write, totally unaware of the situation and sentiments of the people. Wield citizens in Ukraine not more than 1,5% and then lived mostly in the Crimea. Let me explain: 1) Defense of Ukraine (a gift from the USSR) in the opinion of military experts, the best in the world. (80%-missile air defense systems of the USSR, was focused on the territory of Ukraine). 2) 60% of Soviet armored forces were concentrated in the Ukraine (the most modern machines), as well as tankostroitelnaya industry. 3) The Ukraine 2500 Mig 29 and SU 27. 430 Su 25, 120 Su 24, 1300 attack helicopters Mi24. According to our combat readiness of Russia experts Ukrainian Armed Forces to order above Russia's Sun. Ordinary Ukrainians also advise Russia to take military action against Ukraine: - "Living in Russia! You will engage in a war - because the guerrillas will be the south-east! Remember Tuzla - even in my native Donetsk people full swing indignant: "Moskali want to seize our territory!". Even Grandma dissatisfied bubneli in trams. Nation united in hatred. According to independent sociological studies, most were eager to go to war with Russia ... no, not zapadentsy not guessed. DONCHANE! Zapadentsy quieter, and SE - and more passionarnyj obezbashenny. - "Imagine fighting for the Ukraine young Muscovites and other young Russians who do not want to go into the army, which are caught on the streets of a war with Ukraine. This is the army! In the case of defeat in war with Ukraine, Russia certainly await reparations and indemnities. Ukrainians are reminded that Siberian oil and gas to international legal norms also belong Ukraine - Russia unilaterally June 12, 1990 eliminated the Soviet constitution ( "the subsoil belong to the entire Soviet people"). In the north of Ukrainians were 5 million, compared to only 1 million Russian. In fact they created a Siberian Oil & Cas. | |
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