«Pro» mood is changing under the whistle of bullets. Violation of the Black Sea caused by the desire to gain promotion to commander of the leadership ...

Subject «threat of war» in the Crimea, «Ossetian script» in the Crimea, «the future of Russian provocations in Crimea» became the Navier `yazlyvoyu. So I immediately called a dozen Western media that the Russian-Georgian conflict last year suggested that the next on `yektom aggression Russia will Crimea. Similar predictions were heard coming from the head of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Bernard Kouchner, the deputy head of the Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs Tomáš Poyara, the former head of the U.S. Department of State Richard Holbrooke. We decided to address the subject of the Russian threat in the Crimea, as recently an official of the NATO James Appathurai said that NATO is supposedly not provide military aid to Ukraine in case of threats to its security.

About how far Russia is prepared to go to their harassment, we speak with the head of international programs center Nomos, located in Sebastopol, Dmitri Shtyblikovym.

«Pro» MOOD WHEN СИЛЬНО change whiz Kul

Dmitry, the probability of military conflict on the Crimean peninsula and the real situation in Crimea meet, well, the expectations of the Russian elite?

When you look the publication of the Russian media, it appears that the citizens of Russia just deliberately preparing for war with Ukraine. On the Internet 'was a mass return of scripts in Ukraine «Brother a family». Some of them even do not exclude the use of nuclear weapons. I do not think that is quite interesting to discuss healthy imagination, as well as not allow full-scale war in Russia and Ukraine. But the origins of this interest are clear, the Russian-Georgian war in Sevastopol journalists visited almost all Western countries. I spoke with many of them, they came to ask about the possibility of «pivdennoosetynskoho scenario in Crimea».Some of them nachytavshys Russian press, were confident that in the Crimea have is about something should happen, and even going to sit and wait for this «something». It is difficult to overestimate the effect of scenarios that vkydayutsya.

Some Russian media described a hypothetical scenario «blitz ice» of annexation and occupation of Sevastopol Tuzla ...

The authors of these scenarios have forgotten that Sevastopol today - the base of two fleets: Naval Forces of Ukraine and the Russian Black Sea Fleet. And joining a large, more than one thousand square kilometers, of which are part of the Naval Forces of Ukraine and can not be «lightning», as «plan» the authors of this scenario. If even the Russian general staff, and wanted to implement this scenario, it would result in significant civilian casualties, because in the Sevastopol military objects are often located near residential buildings. It is very sure that the residents would remain in Sevastopol «pro-Russian sentiments», if their home town was destroyed. «Pro» mood is changing under the whistle of bullets and shells rupture.

With regard to Tuzla. The so-called «occupation» Tuzla - if not a gamble, then stupidity.Control the Kerch Strait from it is not possible, but troops that hypothetically it «paying», find themselves under direct artillery fire by the shore.

You do not allow for the possibility that Moscow might send to the Crimea, landing - and the Marines try to take key infrastructure objects?

I studied this question in detail. The total number of Marines on the Russian Black Sea - 2900 people. Maximum desantomistkist Black Sea Fleet - 2100 troops. In the armed forces of the Russian Federation troop-carrier just enough to lift into the air by one division, and then without heavy equipment. In general, when the mobilization of all resources of the Russian army could move to eight and a half thousand people. But the operation in South Ossetia, according to official data, participated in fifteen and a half thousand troops, and in itself and South Ossetia have their militias. The total number of groups there could be 25-30 thousand troops. It has no tools for creating compact and armed superiority and conduct operations in the Crimea.

And then let's not forget about our armed forces. Whatever were our modest resources, but to put mine on the coast areas desantnonebezpechnyh our army will, as will counteract coastal artillery fire. Not to mention the possibility to transfer part of the Ukrainian army from western and south-west direction for strengthening the group in the Crimea.

Troop on the air in Russia has not nor powers, NO DRUGS

Optimistic estimates you ...

Recent developments in the Russian authorities are making some adjustments. I mean Medvedev amendment to the law on defense, which he filed on August 10. According to this amendment, Russia has the right to protect the rights of fellow citizens in other states. If the State Duma adopt amendments to the law, we get ambiguous situation in Crimea. Because it really changes the balance of power. For example, held court and bailiffs came to the lighthouse. Thus, the new article of the law, it can be treated as «attack», hindering the activities of Russian troops and could be cause for declaring war.

Now is the reform of the armed forces of Russia. And if the total number of Black Sea Navy is not increased, then in connection with the transition to new states, it varies so that, where a regiment of marines, will now present brigade of marines. And its size has increased significantly. Let the Crimea, it increased by dissolved other parts that are in the Crimea.However, the structure changes.

The agreements we have recorded that the number of Marines RF Marine aviation units with ground-based - this is 1982 people. Earlier Regiment Marines totaled nearly a half thousand people, then today - about three thousand people.

The representative of NATO recently stated that the Alliance does not seem to defend the security of Ukraine ...

Crimea - not the best place for military action by Russia. Crimea - the peninsula, the same «narrow isthmus» from Russia far enough. A troop of air in it, no energy or tools. I would not have considered the possibility of military action, while Russia appears not a sufficient number of vessels and aircraft movements for the troops. A fight against one team in the Crimea is not even funny. Ta and strong separatist sentiment in Crimea not to rebel, to block troops, security forces.

In Russia, announced the relocation program fellow, and if you do not count soldiers who served in the Crimea and got an apartment in Russia, the Crimea left all seven people in two years. So Russia they love from afar.

But in the Crimea is felt nostalgia for the «Great Family». Active pro-Russian organizations, Russian symbolism everywhere ...

I once wrote that the Crimea - a piece of Soviet society. A pro-Soviet nostalgic mood - it is not pro. The rally in the Crimea - is dressed in Soviet uniforms to retirees and the elderly.Depend on the pro-Soviet sentiment in the serious conflict jokingly.

Nationality of the Russians and Ukrainian Crimea defined not along ethnic lines, and self-identity for citizens of Ukraine. The real difference between the Russians and Ukrainian relative.

Violation of the BSF CAUSED WILL gain promotion to Commander GUIDE

Over the past month in the Crimea were four violations by Russia of the status and conditions of the host Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine.

Was. But I am inclined to attribute these violations to other military and political events in Russia, which only served to inflame the Crimea. I tend to think that this initiative commander of BSF, which is highly valued in Moscow. Perhaps these incidents took place not under his direction, but out of it to show the Russian leadership of its value.

Russian nationality and pro - this is not the same. Zishlyusya the results of a survey conducted by the political movement «We». In Sevastopol, only 16% willing to renounce the citizenship of Ukraine in case of obtaining Russian citizenship.

Russia has long-term plans for the peninsula. How far it is willing to go to their implementation?

I can not be responsible for political and military leadership and command of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. But the former head of intelligence in the Black Sea, Mr. Solovyov interview TV «Inter» said: We are in 2017 not to go. This opinion is widespread among senior officers of the BSF. They say that will not go just because they go from Sevastopol really nowhere. In this situation the Ukrainian Constitution, which prevents further stay of the fleet, are not considered.

Fleet - is not «Zhiguli»: introduced and left. It's not just the ships that you can devote to Novorossiysk. This huge infrastructure is and Yalta, and Sevastopol, and Theodosia, and the weight of objects scattered around the peninsula. And if you do not sit down, do not agree, do not make graphics output to the May 2017 end the process, it is more difficult to negotiate.

Therefore, suppose the first challenge will be in 2017. Or break international scandal, or have to change the Constitution.

What should I do to krymchane not felt in the Crimea fellow Russians abroad?

After the First World War to the occupied northern Italy Tirolya - small German enclave. Thus, from the First World War until today, the region is bilingual (or rather - trilingual, given tirolsku or ladynsku language. - Author.), And no one will hide, Endowment. Round purposefully invested money, and everything is done to Italian German wanted not to return to the «historical homeland», and the standard of living higher there than in Italy, and better than in the border areas of Germany.

Maybe there are other options, Kyiv forget, that Crimea - disadvantaged regions. The resort infrastructure is worn, as is unemployment. And this area will become increasingly difficult, arguing that it is ours. Options to raise the economy of the peninsula, - weight. It would wish.

Interviewer Lana Samokhvalova