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12:02 A look at Russia from the West | |
 Months-long review of plans for the deployment of U.S. missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic, initiated by the White House after coming to power of Barack Obama, nearing the end. It is expected that the result of the review will be a number of proposed optionsMonths-long review of plans for the deployment of U.S. missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic, initiated by the White House after coming to power of Barack Obama, nearing the end. It is expected that the result of the review will be a number of proposed options - from carrying out installations to their complete abolition. Obama administration has not yet come to a decision about what to do. In Poland and the Czech Republic might and main circulating rumors that the United States abandoned its plans to deploy missile defense systems in these countries.The source of the rumors is a lobbying group to support the deployment, said last week that U.S. plans almost buried. The final decision on U.S. anti-missile bases depends on the upcoming summit of the five permanent members of UN Security Council plus Germany to discuss Iran's nuclear program, and how Russia will react to these negotiations. If Russia does not agree to cooperate on sanctions, but will continue to maintain close relations with Iran, we suspect that the plan to deploy bases remain unchanged. In any case, the issue of placing missile-defense system gives us a good opportunity to review the U.S. relationship with Russia and the West and see how they evolved. 'Cold War' or a new 'Cold War' Over the past year in discussions between Russia and the West appeared periodically recurring theme - the return of the Cold War. For example, the U.S. president Barack Obama has accused Russia of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is that he stands with one foot in the Cold War. In response, Russian accused the Americans of what they think in terms of the Cold War. Residents of Eastern European countries are afraid that Russian continues to consider its relations with Europe in terms of 'holdnoy war. Other Europeans have expressed concern that the Americans and Russian could drag Europe into another cold war. For many in the West, more mature and stable relations between Russia and the West, are part of what is called 'the world after the Cold War. In this world of Russian is no longer considered an enemy of the West, and consider the other former Soviet republics as independent states, having full right to build any relationship with the West. Russia should welcome or, at worst, indifferent to such matters. Instead, Russia should concentrate its efforts on economic development, while integrating the lessons learned from the West, in its political and social thinking. Russian must stop thinking in the political-military terms, in terms of the Cold War. Instead, they should think about a new paradigm, in which Russia is backward, though, but part of the Western economic system, which requires time and the creation of institutional infrastructure in order to become a full partner of the West. Everything else is thinking is a relic of the Cold War. It is this thinking behind the decision to restart the US-Russia relations. Button 'restart', proposed by Hillary Clinton, was to avert a US-Russia relations from what Washington regarded as the return of the Cold War, to a preference between 1991 and the deterioration in relations that followed the 'Orange Revolution' that occurred on Ukraine in 2004. With regard to relations with Russia, the United States were willing to work in two modes: either in a 'cold war' or in 'post-Cold War. Russian look at the world after the Cold War more biased. For Moscow, the period after the Cold War was not a period of reform, and the period of disintegration and chaos. The old system has collapsed, but in its place there were no new formations. Instead, the country experienced the chaos of privatization, which has become a wild landfill, during which vanished social order. Western institutions, from banks to universities, have been implicated in the collapse. Western banks are eager to exploit new reserves expropriated private money, while the western Russian advisers were eager to learn how to become the same as they are.Meanwhile, the workers received no wages, life expectancy and fertility rates have fallen, and the main institutions responsible for maintaining order under communism collapsed - or, worse, took part in looting.The World After the Cold War was an unhappy time for Russia: it was a catastrophic period for Russia's power. In this - the gulf between the West and Russian. West divides the world into 'cold war' and 'the world after the Cold War. He obviously prefers the 'world after the Cold War, not so much because of social conditions in Russia, but because in the world after the Cold War is not a geopolitical challenge to the Soviet Union - disappeared all of the wars for national liberation to threat of nuclear war. From the Russian point of view, the social chaos of the world after the Cold War was unbearable. In the meantime, Russia's point of view of the fact that Russia no longer challenge the West, meant that Moscow was helpless in the face of Western plans in the region, held in life, not taking into account the interests of Russia. As already noted, Westerners think in terms of two eras - the Cold War and the period 'after the Cold War.This distinction is formalized in the western expert assessment of Russia and shares expert on Russia at the two classes. There are those who reached maturity during the Cold War in 1970 and 1980, and as a result are used to thinking of Russia as a global threat. And there are those who reached maturity in the late 1980's and 1990's. They see Russia as a failed state (failed state), which can stabilize itself at the time, succumbing to Western institutions and values, or to continue their inexorable decline. These two generations of strife. Interestingly, the difference between them is not so much in ideology as in age. Senior group considers the behavior of Russian more skeptical, suggesting that a KGB agent Putin dreams of a revival of Soviet power. The generation that came after the Cold War and oversaw the U.S. policy towards Russia during the Clinton and Bush, more interesting. During the rule of both administrations, this generation is believed that the economic liberalization and political liberalization is inextricably linked with each other. It is believed that Russia was moving in the right direction, if only Moscow has not tried to reaffirm its geopolitical and military influence and control the economy or society over state power. This generation is considered the evolution of Russia over the past decade, the unfortunate and unnecessary process, moving away from the path of Russia, who was her best. In addition, the younger generation thinks that the response generation 'cold war' on Russia's behavior was counterproductive. World after after the Cold War American and Western understanding of Russia is locked in an unproductive paradigm. For Russia, the choice is not between the 'cold war' and 'the world after the Cold War. This opposition has denied the possibility, if I may say so, after the world-after the Cold War. If you get rid of redundant 'after', it is a world in which Russia is a major regional power with a stable, albeit tormented problems economies, functional society and regional interests that it must protect. Russia can not return to the Cold War, which consisted of three parts. First, were the nuclear relationship.Secondly, there was a Soviet military threat to Europe and the Far East, the possibility to transfer large armed forces on the Eurasian territory. And, thirdly, there were wars of national liberation, financiers and sponsors of the Soviets, whose goal was the creation of states that were Soviet allies, and undermining U.S. power, forced to carry out regular operations against the rebels. Although the nuclear balance is still here, by itself it is not a threat. No other measurements of Russia's power, the threat of mutually assured destruction has little meaning. Russia's armed forces can evolve to become a threat to Eurasia, as we have already drawn attention, in Russia the status of the economy has no historical relationship with the military power. But it will take a generation of development that will threaten the rule of Europe - and in Russia today has a much smaller population and resources than the entire Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact countries that are linked to it earlier. Finally, while Russia is undoubtedly able to finance rebellions, ideological power of Marxism has disappeared, and in any case, Russia - not a Marxist state. Arrange any war of national liberation solely on financial grounds - not as easy as it seems. The road back to the Cold War closed. But the road to the period after the Cold War either. In the mid-to late 1990's, the West could completely destroy Russia. Instead, the West chose a mixed strategy of ignoring Russia, while irritating its its economic policy, which was, at least, useless, and security policy (as the situation in Kosovo), which was supposed to finally show Russia that the world stage, it is powerless. Acting on the basis of the myth about the construction of the West thought that Russia could build its own image and likeness. Until now, most experts of the new generation can not understand how the Russians felt their efforts deliberate attempt to destroy Russia, and how the Russians are committed to never return to that time. It is difficult to imagine how angry Russian reset button, quite seriously suggested the Kremlin experts on Russia who are referred by a team Obama in the Clinton administration. Russian simply not going to return to the era after the Cold War, which Western experts remembered so lovingly. The resumption of negotiations to reduce nuclear arsenals is an example of how the generation after the Cold War 'misjudge Russia. At one time these negotiations were a matter of urgency. Today, no urgency anymore. The threat of nuclear war is not part of this equation. Maintain visibility of parity with the United States and limit the American arsenal, of course, carry the value of Russia's point of view, but are no longer a matter of fundamental importance. Some suggested to use these talks as a confidence-building measures.But from the Russian point of view, the START-1 - is a minor issue, and the fact that Washington has focused its attention on him, shows that the United States is not willing to take seriously the ongoing urgent interests of Russia. Continuous lectures on human rights and the need for economic liberalization, which the Russian just turn a deaf ear, is yet another example of how a generation after the Cold War misjudge Russia. The period when human rights and economic liberalization is at the center of public policy in Russia, remember - and it's not only about Russia's political elite - as one of the worst periods in modern Russia's history. Nobody wants to go back, but the Russian always hear appeals from the West to return to the chaos. Russian confident that Western officials 'third generation' after the 'Cold War' want to finish what began in 1990. The key point to these Western officials often do not realize that Russian does not consider them less, and even more dangerous for Russia's interests than the generation of the Cold War. Russian think that neither 'cold war' or 'world after the Cold War are not the correct paradigm. Russia does not challenge the global hegemony of the United States. But Russia is also not prepared simply to let the West build an alliance of states around its borders. Russia is the dominant power in the former Soviet Union.Its economic strategy is to develop and export of primary commodities, from natural gas to the grain. To successfully advance this strategy, it wants to harmonize policies in respect of these commodities, especially in regard to energy, with the former Soviet republics. The combination of economic and strategic interests does the status of these former republics of the main strategic interests of Russia. This is not a vision of the Cold War 'or' after the Cold War, but Russia is a logical view of the contemporary world. Although Georgia is Russia's concern most noise, Georgia is not the key reason for Russia's concerns - the role played by Ukraine. As long as the United States are seriously considering the possibility of including Ukraine in NATO, the United States represent a direct threat to national security of Russia. Just look at the map to understand why the Russian people think so. Russia is also interested in Central Europe. She looks for a rule, and is interested in a neutral buffer zone between Germany and the former USSR. Former satellite countries, such as Poland, are vital for Moscow.The Kremlin considers the possible location of missile bases in Poland and the Baltic states membership in NATO and unnecessary direct challenge to Russia's national interests. Responding to the United States Since the United States inconvenience Russian, Russia, in turn, would inconvenience the United States. Sore spot for the U.S. is the Middle East, especially Iran. Accordingly, the Russian response to American pressure, where Washington hardest. Warriors of the Cold War do not understand limits Russia's power. Warriors' after the Cold War do not understand how Russia did not trust them, and do not understand the logic behind this distrust. They confuse it with the remnants of distrust of the Cold War, not realizing that in fact it is a direct response to the policy of the times' after the Cold War, which they both supported. I'm not trying to convince the West to meet Russian: this approach carries serious risks for the West.Understanding the intentions of Russia today does not help predict what they might be, if Moscow felt safe in the post-Soviet space, and if she managed to neutralize Poland. The logic of such situations is that the extent of how problems are solved, new opportunities. Thus, we should think about the future, which could bring a compromise with the West. At the same time, it is important to understand that no model of the Cold War, neither model 'after the Cold War are not sufficient, to understand Russia's intentions and reactions. We remember the feeling when ended the Cold War, and known and understood by the world disappeared. Today the same thing happens with the new generation of experts: a world in which they worked, dissolved, and was replaced by an entirely different and very complex world. Reset button are symbols of a return to the past, from which the Russian refused. Negotiations on START-1 - is also something of the long-vanished world. Today the main issue was the desire of Russia to have its own sphere of influence, and the willingness and ability of the West to block these ambitions. Somewhere, between the missile base in Poland and the threat posed by Iran, the West must make a strategic decision about Russia, and then learn to live with its consequences. | |
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